High Severe Weather Risk Thursday
There will be a high risk for severe weather across Southern Ontario on Thursday, particularly in Eastern Ontario.
The environment is very favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms, including the development of a tornado or two.
There is some uncertainty regarding timing and the exact locations that will be affected due to differences between weather models.
There is a high potential for severe weather across Southern Ontario tomorrow. The main area that should expect severe weather is Eastern Ontario. Severe thunderstorms will develop across the Bruce Peninsula and Georgian Bay and move east throughout the day. More details on timing are below.
It is important to note that likely not everyone in a risk area will see a severe thunderstorm tomorrow, however, due to the nature of the environment, we wanted to highlight the potential risk.
This event has been rather difficult to forecast, due to differences between weather models. As stated, as a result of the very favourable environment, all of Southern Ontario has been included in a risk category. This is because a severe thunderstorm, or multiple severe thunderstorms, may pop-up across the region with little warning. More details on threats are below.
Once again, as the environment is very favourable for severe weather, including tornadoes, especially in Eastern Ontario, please heed any weather alerts that are issued by Environment Canada, including Severe Thunderstorm Warnings or Tornado Warnings. More details on emergency preparedness are below.
This outlook will be updated as needed. A STORM WATCH page will be created tomorrow morning to help capture any information the public needs, all in one place.
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Bruce Peninsula and Georgian Bay around 10:00 AM. The thunderstorms are expected to become a cluster as they move east, throughout the Muskoka region, and continue to push across Eastern Ontario before moving into the United States by 6:00 PM.
In the Moderate/Orange area, there is the potential for heavy rainfall within the thunderstorms, large hail, damaging winds up to 110 km/h, and the potential for one to two tornadoes. Frequent lightning and localized flooding are also likely in areas that receive thunderstorms.
In the Elevated/Yellow area, there is the potential for heavy rainfall within the thunderstorms, large hail, damaging winds up to 90 km/h, and the potential for an isolated tornado. Frequent lightning and localized flooding are also likely in areas that receive thunderstorms.
The Northern Tornadoes Project has issued an experimental outlook valid for June 16, 2022, which shows the "Likely Tornado" chance across Eastern Ontario.
Environment Canada has issued their Thunderstorm Outlook for tomorrow. Their description is below.
Location: Most of southern Ontario.
Impacts: Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects, damage weak buildings, break branches off trees and overturn large vehicles. Large hail can damage property and cause injury.
Confidence: Low to medium.
Description: Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts to 110 km/h and large hail to 4 cm are the main hazards expected with these storms. For portions of central Ontario as well as eastern Ontario, a tornado or two is possible. There is timing uncertainty which may affect the locations impacted and hazards as this event draws nearer.
Power outages are possible.
Be sure to charge electronic devices ahead of severe weather.
Secure all outdoor furniture.
Monitor alerts issued by Environment Canada.