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FORECAST UPDATE: Moderate Risk for Severe Weather Wednesday Night

Updated: Jul 12, 2023



There will be a Moderate risk for severe weather across Southwestern Ontario tonight. After careful consideration, we have decided to make an update to our Severe Weather Outlook based on the information available. Tonight's severe weather risk may be dangerous as the threat is during the nighttime hours. Please ensure you have a way to get weather warnings and have a plan in place to take shelter if needed.


The Moderate risk are includes Windsor, Leamington, Chatham and Wallaceburg. In these areas, threats will include heavy rain, localized flooding, strong wind gusts of 110 km/h or greater, large hail, and the risk for 1 or 2 tornadoes.


The Elevated risk area includes Sarnia, London, St. Thomas, Simcoe, Brantford and Hamilton. In these areas, threats will include heavy rain, localized flooding, strong wind gusts of 100 km/h or greater, large hail, and the risk for an isolated tornado.


The Low risk area includes Goderich, Kincardine, Seafroth, Stratford, Kitchener, Oakville, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls. In these areas, threats will include heavy rain, localized flooding and strong wind gusts up to 80 km/h.


We do not anticipate that the severe weather threat will affect areas east of the Low risk area.


The heaviest rain is expected across Southwestern and Midwestern Ontario. The rain will continue into the overnight areas and push into Eastern Ontario for Thursday before completely exiting the region during the afternoon hours.


30 to 40 mm is expected for areas including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Goderich, Listowel, Kincardine, Owen Sound and Tobermory.


20 to 30 mm is expected for the rest of the region, including Kitchener, Brantford, Hamilton, Niagara Falls, Toronto, Barrie, Peterborough, Kingston, Ottawa, Bancroft and Parry Sound.


Rainfall amounts will be locally heavier in thunderstorms. As some thunderstorms may become temporarily stationary, there is the potential for larger rainfall amounts.


Special Weather Statements have been issued by Environment Canada.


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