LAST UPDATE: 6:55 PM, April 11 2024
NEXT UPDATE: 11:00 PM, April 11 2024
Discussion
Another spring storm has set its sights on the region will bring varying weather conditions to the area over the next 48 hours.
Rain has begun across the region. Breezy conditions will develop across the area for today. Rain will continue through the day, with the potential for a couple breaks, and continue into Friday. There remains some uncertainty regarding how long the rain will continue through the day Friday. Areas that receive thunderstorms and heavy downpours will see higher rainfall amounts. Flooding will be possible across the area.
The environment may become favourable for some severe weather to develop Thursday evening, with the best chance for severe thunderstorms in the Niagara Region. An additional risk will exist in Southwestern Ontario and along the Lake Erie shoreline. The largest threats will be wind gusts up to 90 km/h and heavy rainfall which may cause localized flooding.
By Friday, we are expecting winds to become fairly strong across much of the region with wind gusts of up to 110 km/h possible for areas off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Southwestern Ontario and the GTA will likely see wind gusts up to 100 km/h possible, while areas in far Eastern Ontario see wind gusts up to 70 km/h.
A second threat for severe weather may develop in Eastern Ontario for Friday afternoon. We are currently monitoring this and a Severe Weather Outlook will be issued for these areas if deemed necessary.
Rain is expected to transition to snow for some areas on Friday evening into Saturday. Temperatures will determine exactly where the rain/snow line exists, and there is plenty of uncertainty with how much snowfall is expected. The Snowfall Outlook will be posted in a future STORM CENTRE update.
Rainfall Outlook
50 to 60 mm: Chatham, Leamington, Sarnia, Wallaceburg and Windsor.
40 to 50 mm: Goderich, Grand Bend, Hamilton, Kincardine, Kitchener, London, Niagara Falls, Oakville, Orangeville, Owen Sound, Simcoe, St. Thomas, Stratford and Tobermory.
30 to 40 mm: Bancroft, Barrie, Barry's Bay, Belleville, Bracebridge, Brockville, Collingwood, Cornwall, Huntsville, Kingston, Midland, Orillia, Oshawa, Ottawa, Parry Sound and Toronto.
Severe Weather Outlook
As stated, the best chance for severe thunderstorms is expected to be in the Niagara Region, while much of Southwestern Ontario sees lesser threats. All thunderstorms will include frequent lightning as a threat.
Low Risk
Locations: Fort Erie, Niagara Falls and St. Catharines.
Threats: Rainfall of 40 to 60 mm possible in the strongest thunderstorms, flooding, a chance for a weak isolated tornado, wind gusts up to 90 km/h, and hail 1 to 2 cm in diameter.
Very Low Risk
Locations: Brantford, Chatham, Grand Bend, Leamington, London, Pelee Island, Sarnia, Simcoe, St. Thomas, Wallaceburg, Windsor and Woodstock.
Threats: Rainfall of 40 to 60 mm possible in the strongest thunderstorms, flooding, wind gusts up to 80 km/h, and a low chance for hail.
Non-Severe Risk
Locations: Bancroft, Barry's Bay, Belleville, Brockville, Collingwood, Cornwall, Goderich, Huntsville, Kincardine, Kingston, Kitchener, Ottawa, Owen Sound, Peterborough, Renfrew, Tobermory and Toronto.
Threats: Heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to 80 km/h.
Snowfall Outlook
A Snowfall Outlook will be published in a later STORM CENTRE update.
Wind Outlook
The strongest wind gusts are expected Friday afternoon and evening across the Lake Huron shoreline, Georgian Bay and Midwestern Ontario.
100 to 110 km/h: Barrie, Collingwood, Goderich, Kincardine, Kitchener, Midland, Newmarket, Orangeville, Orillia, Owen Sound, Stratford, Tobermory and Woodstock.
90 to 100 km/h: Bracebridge, Brantford, Chatham, Grand Bend, Hamilton, Leamington, London, Oshawa, Pelee Island, Peterborough, Sarnia, St. Thomas, Toronto, Wallaceburg and Windsor.
80 to 90 km/h: Bancroft, Brighton, Cobourg, Fort Erie, Huntsville, Niagara Falls, Parry Sound, Simcoe and St. Catharines.
70 to 80 km/h: Barry's Bay, Belleville, Brockville, Kingston and Napanee.
60 to 70 km/h: Cornwall and Ottawa.
School Bus Cancellations
No data has been published.
Closings and Cancellations
No data has been published.
Road Closures
No data has been published.