There will be an Elevated risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening, mainly across the Lake Huron shoreline and near Georgian Bay. There will be additional risks for Southwestern Ontario and the GTA.
The environment will become favourable for thunderstorms to develop today across much of the area, and some of these may become. The highest risk for these thunderstorms to become severe will be in the Elevated risk area, which includes Midwestern Ontario, along the Lake Huron shoreline and parts of Georgian Bay.
A Low risk will also exist for Southwestern Ontario, the GTA, and portions of Central Ontario where thunderstorms will be possible, however it is slightly questionable if these thunderstorms will reach severe limits.
Additionally, a Very Low risk area will exist in the Niagara Region and portions of Eastern Ontario where the threat will be considerably lower. The environment will be slightly favourable for severe weather, but the likelihood for them to develop is fairly unlikely.
Non-Severe thunderstorms are expected in far Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, through the late evening and overnight hours.
Elevated Risk
Locations: Barrie, Collingwood, Goderich, Kincardine, Kitchener, London, Midland, Orangeville, Orillia, Stratford and Woodstock.
Threats: Heavy rainfall of 20 to 40 mm or greater in local downpours, localized flooding, the risk for an isolated tornado, wind gusts of 90 km/h, and hail 2 to 3 cm in diameter.
Low Risk
Locations: Barry's Bay, Bracebridge, Brantford, Chatham, Huntsville, Leamington, Markham, Newmarket, Oakville, Oshawa, Parry Sound, Sarnia, St. Thomas, Toronto and Windsor.
Threats: Heavy rainfall of 20 to 40 mm, the risk of an isolated tornado, wind gusts of 90 km/h, and hail 1 to 2 cm in diameter.
Very Low Risk
Locations: Bancroft, Belleville, Brighton, Fort Erie, Hamilton, Kingston, Peterborough, Renfrew, Simcoe, St. Catharines
Threats: Heavy rain, wind gusts of 80 km/h and a low risk for small hail.
Non-Severe Risk
Locations: Brockville, Cornwall and Ottawa.
Threats: Heavy rain and wind gusts less than 80 km/h.