The National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL has started forecasting for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen.
A Potential Tropical Cyclone is a system that could become a tropical depression or tropical storm and brings hazardous conditions to land within the next 48 hours. The National Hurricane Centre can issue watches and warnings to keep the public informed.
The system is currently moving north at 11 km/h, which is expected to continue through early Friday. The system is expected to begin moving north-northwestward to northward motion by late Friday, which is expected to continue into the weekend. On this forecast track, the center of the cyclone
is expected to reach the coast of North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning Friday night and Saturday.
Storm Surge is expected to be up to 5 feet in some areas. Storm Surge is an abnormal rise in sea levels, which can cause structure damage, washouts on roads, damage to marinas, and large areas being underwater for extended periods of time.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the following water heights if peak surge occurs at high tide.
Neuse and Bay Rivers: 3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers: 3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach: 2-4 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA: 2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound: 2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC: 1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ: 1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay: 1-3 ft
Delaware Bay: 1-3 ft
Additional hazards include the following.
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina on Friday and spread northward Friday night and Saturday.
Rain: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Some localized areas may see 7 inches of rainfall.
The rest of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England is expected to see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday.
Small streams and urban areas may experience flooding.
Surf: Life-threatening rip currents and surf is expected.
Tornadoes: The National Hurricane Centre says a few tornadoes are possible Friday night through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
More details from the National Hurricane Centre can be found here.