POSTED: 11:59 AM, November 18 2024
Our first "winter-ish" storm is expected to move into the region mid-week and continue with some impacts through the weekend.
We are expecting rain to begin in Southern Ontario at some point on Wednesday, possibly in the afternoon or evening hours. Rain is expected to continue through much of the night into Thursday morning.
Image: American Medium-Range model (NAM 12km) at 7 PM Wednesday, showing rain across much of the region. Model courtesy of WeatherBELL.
By the time we get to Thursday morning, the low pressure system is expected to deepen and usher in some colder air to the region. Although temperatures are expected to be fairly mild on Wednesday, Thursday will bring a large change, with air temperatures likely near the freezing mark across the region. With winds remaining fairly gusty, temperatures will likely "feel like" below zero through Thursday.
The temperature change may create areas of rain mixed with snow, or transition from rain to snow, however temperatures will likely remain above the freezing mark for many areas, meaning it will be wet snow and accumulations will be limited.
Image: American Medium-Range model (NAM 12km) at 10 AM Thursday, showing snow across portions of Southern Ontario.
Strong wind gusts are also expected to develop across the area as the low pressure system deepens. Some wind gusts may reach 80 km/h or greater.
Image: American Medium-Range model (NAM 12km) showing maximum wind gusts through 7 PM Thursday.
At this time, we are starting to get a look at these medium-range models instead of the long-range global models, which are providing some more clarity. However, uncertainty remains between multiple different weather models and which solution will play out.
Looking to the weekend, there looks to be some potential for lake effect snow to develop, however details remain uncertain at this time. Further updates will be posted in the coming days, we encourage everyone to stay tuned.