LAST UPDATE: 2:37 PM, February 28 2024
NEXT UPDATE: 7:00 PM, February 28 2024
Discussion
A very dynamic 24 hours is expected across the region starting Tuesday evening. From severe thunderstorms and record warm temperatures to a flash freeze event and snow squalls, the area will see it all.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the area, and in Extreme Southwestern Ontario, all severe weather hazards will be on the table, including heavy rainfall which may cause flooding, wind gusts up to 90 km/h, hail up to 2 cm, and the risk for an isolated tornado. The most potent storms are expected late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. There is some uncertainty regarding the strength of the storms, as the cold lakes may weaken the storms as they move into the region.
On Wednesday, the day will begin with fairly warm temperatures in the morning, along with more rain across the region. A sharp cold front will move into the area beginning in the morning and move through the region as the day progresses. Many areas are expected to drop 10 degrees or more within only 3 to 4 hours. Any roads and sidewalks that become wet from rain earlier in the morning will rapidly become icy and slippery. Any rainfall occurring at the time is expected to rapidly change to ice pellets and then to snow. Significant travel delays are expected, especially for the afternoon commute. We encourage everyone to salt sidewalks and driveways in the morning prior to the flash freeze.
Strong wind gusts will develop across the region tomorrow as well, particularly in the afternoon. The strongest wind gusts are expected along Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, as well as the GTA where we are expecting to see 80 to 90 km/h wind gusts. The rest of the region will see wind gusts of 70 to 80 km/h.
Finally, as the cold front moves through tomorrow, snow squalls will begin to develop off Lake Huron. With strong wind gusts expected as well, there will be the potential for blowing snow and whiteout conditions. The snow squalls are expected to continue into Thursday, with the potential for snowfall amounts to reach 30 cm or more for some areas. A future STORM CENTRE update will include a Snow Squall Outlook. This STORM CENTRE may be extended until February 29.
Severe Weather Outlook
As stated, the main risk for severe weather will be in Extreme Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham.
Low Risk
Locations: Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham.
Threats: Heavy rainfall, flooding, the risk for an isolated tornado, wind gusts up to 90 km/h, and hail 1-2 cm in diameter.
Very Low Risk
Locations: Grand Bend, London, Brantford, Simcoe, St. Catharines and Fort Erie.
Threats: Rainfall 20 to 40 mm, flooding, locally greater in thunderstorms, flooding and wind gusts up to 80 km/h.
Non-Severe Risk
Locations: Goderich, Tobermory, Kitchener, Toronto, Barrie, Parry Sound, Peterborough, Kingston, Bancroft and Ottawa.
Threats: Local flooding and wind gusts 70 to 80 km/h.
Rainfall Outlook
20 to 30 mm: London, St. Thomas, Brantford, St. Catharines, Fort Erie, Kitchener, Toronto and Oshawa.
10 to 20 mm: Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, Goderich, Tobermory, Owen Sound, Orangeville, Kingston and Parry Sound.
5 to 10 mm: Huntsville, Bancroft, Renfew, Brockville, Cornwall and Ottawa.
** Any area that receives thunderstorms will see locally heavier rainfall amounts.
Flash Freeze Timing
8 AM to 11 AM: The Bruce Peninsula, including Tobermory, Wiarton and Owen Sound.
11 AM to 2 PM: Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Goderich, Brantford, Hamilton, Kitchener, Toronto, Oshawa, Barrie, Parry Sound and Huntsville.
2 PM to 5 PM: St. Catharines, Fort Erie, Peterborough, Belleville, Kingston, Bancroft and Renfrew.
5 PM to 8 PM: Brockville, Cornwall and Ottawa.
** All times on this map are approximate, based on the timing of the cold front.
Wind Outlook
80 to 90 km/h: Goderich, Tobermory, Owen Sound, Barrie, Kitchener, Toronto, Peterborough and Belleville.
70 to 80 km/h: Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Brantford, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Parry Sound, Huntsville, Bancroft, Kingston, Cornwall and Ottawa.
Snow Squall Outlook
15 to 25 cm: Wiarton, Owen Sound, Kincardine, Hanover and Collingwood.
10 to 20 cm: Tobermory, Goderich, Listowel, Shelburne and Barrie.
5 to 10 cm: Seaforth, Stratford, Orangeville, Orillia and Midland.
Trace to 5 cm: Grand Bend, Kitchener, Georgetown, Bracebridge, Parry Sound and Huntsville.
School Bus Cancellations
Closings and Cancellations
No data has been published.
Road Closures
No data has been published.
Transit Notices
No data has been published.