STORM CENTRE: March 10-11, 2026

Advance Weather
2 hours ago
2 min read

LAST UPDATE: 7:35 PM, March 10 2026

NEXT UPDATE: 11:00 PM, March 10 2026

Discussion

Some dynamic weather will move through Southern Ontario over the next 36 hours, beginning Tuesday evening.

During the evening hours Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday morning, there will be a risk for some severe weather. This will mainly be along the northern shore of Lake Erie including Point Pelee National Park, Leamington, Kingsville and Colchester. There will be a risk for wind gusts up to 90 km/h, as well as a low risk for a tornado and hail 1 to 2 centimetres in diameter. Localized flooding will be possible, along with torrential downpours.

Some uncertainty remains if the severe weather will overcome the cold lakes. Severe thunderstorms may weaken before entering Southern Ontario.

Much of the region will likely see Non-Severe thunderstorms, mainly producing heavy rainfall and lightning. Some thunder may occur within freezing rain on Wednesday.

Freezing Rain will begin in Eastern and Central Ontario during the early morning hours on Wednesday. Significant freezing rain is likely for portions of Eastern Ontario, where up to 18 millimetres of ice accretion is possible. Not all precipitation will freeze immediately if it is falling heavily. For these areas that see significant Freezing Rain, tree damage and power outages are likely. Ice accretion is difficult to forecast, so we have done our best with the data available. Local ice accretion totals may differ.

Some patchy freezing rain may occur in the GTHA and portions of Southwestern Ontario, bringing less than 2 millimetres of ice accretion. Icy conditions will develop on roadways and sidewalks.

In terms of rainfall amounts, 20 to 30 millimetres of rain is likely across the region. However, locally higher amounts will occur for areas that receive thunderstorms. Localized flooding will be possible, especially within low-lying areas.